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TheBeefSite Newsletter - 08 October 2014

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Wednesday 8th October 2014.
Michael Priestley - Editor

Michael Priestley

MSD Animal Health

Novus International

Little Chance of Runaway Beef Markets Slowing

Runaway beef markets will continue as cattle remain scarce and demand strong, say market analysts.

Weather forecasts and tightening supplies appear to be pointing to no major markets shake-up, despite the Russian import ban and questions over Chinese demand.

Russia’s limited impact has been attributed mostly to prior restrictions in place on US and Australian beef.

However, Brazil is favourite to capitalise after what has already been a good year for exports – up 11 per cent.

This assessment appears in Rabobank’s beef quarterly update, which forecasts tight markets due to key exporters having low cattle inventories.

In Australia, the weather outlook is for further rain shortage. High slaughter rates have followed prolonged drought which has prompted the government to call for ‘agile producers’.

Looking further ahead, Australians have been warned of more ‘tight conditions’.

The US drought, and subsequent slaughter increase, has yielded record cattle prices, severely testing consumer will.

Similarly, despite competition from a drought hit Australia, New Zealand’s ‘optimistic’ producers are also seeing strong prices and excellent returns after good demand from the US and China.

US beef production, down 5.6 per cent from January to August, has meant it has had to ‘aggressively import’, mainly from Australia (up 36 per cent), but also from Canada, Mexico and New Zealand.

This led to a US market which ‘cleared the shelves’, not just in the US but across North America, added Rabobank.

Rabobank said: “What makes this situation even more concerning is that it does not look like the US market has simply removed beef from the short term supply base; there are also indications that supplies are being cleared for the prospect of future opportunities for herd rebuilding.”

One bearish factor could be China’s 2014 demand, up a further 20 per cent so far, waning in light of high prices.

However, Rabobank said that winter months bring cold weather and festivals, both stimulus for beef demand.

Elsewhere, Indonesian and European markets have bucked the trend.

After a Ramadan peak in July, Indonesian prices have fallen as Japanese beef imports have recommenced after a four year foot and mouth disease ban.

In Europe, lower prices across all cattle has resulted in producer lobbying and protest, particularly in Ireland.

Despite slightly lower imports, exports over a third higher and lower production, poor prices remained as demand has been limited by retail prices.


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This Week's Articles and Analysis

Putting on Pounds: Consider Creep Feed
While normally not a big fan of creep feeding, a Kentucky beef expert sees this year as an opportunity to feed before weaning.

Avoiding Respiratory Problems During Winter Housing
Preventative action against pneumonia is well worth it, farmers about to house cattle for winter are being advised.

36 Per Cent More Milk By 2024: Why and How?
In ten years the amount of milk we need to produce must increase by over one third, says food packaging and processing multinational Tetrapak.

'Impressive' Beef Imports to Slow For China
China's beef prices have been consistently strong through the second and third quarter with strong importing activity expected to slow under pressure from high prices.

Farmers Told to Begin October Soil Sampling
October is a good time to sample soils and address nutrient deficiencies to maximise grass production, advise Irish researchers.

Preparing For Winter and Seasonal Housing
Mathematics for this year's winter feeding start with cattle size. If you don't know how big they are how can you feed them correctly?

Market Reports

EBLEX Cattle and Sheep Weekly - 3 October 2014
Australian Rural Commodities Wrap - September 2014

Global Beef Industry News

   European Union

Over 1600 Sheep and a Cow Lost to Bluetongue, Says Latest Update
Next Era Probiotic Solutions on Show at Eurotier
Acquisition of Novartis Animal Health by Eli Lilly Approved
FAO Urges Europe to Support Sustainable Farming

   United Kingdom

Launch of UK Animal and Plant Health Agency
Morrisons Develops Taste for Beef Shorthorn
NFU Prepares for the Next Generation of British Farmers
Public Perception of UK Farming is Increasingly Positive
Pedigreed Aberdeen-Angus Producer Shares Success Story


New Charter of Farmer Rights - A Substantial Improvement

   United States

US Antibiotic Use Rises 2009 to 2012
Quarterly Earnings Down for Cargill
CME To Reduce Electronic Trading Hours for Livestock
Cattle Outlook: Good Week For Cattle Futures and Economy
Stewardship of New Technologies Embraced by US Meat Industry
CME: Shockingly Small Year End Soybean Stocks
Texas Hay Supplies Range from Surplus to 'Non-existent'
Food Animal Production Faces Challenges with New Antibiotic Regulations
Marbling Results Follow Early Weaning
Cattle Futures: Live Cattle Plummets, Oil 'Sharply Lower', Tuesday
Financial Boost for US Organic, Local Food Sectors


Rural Community Focus of Brucellosis Screening


Does China Really Impact Global Commodity Prices?
Slight Rise in Chinese Food Prices


Better Not Rush Trans-Pacific Beef Trade Deal
No Harm in Feeding Livestock GM Feed, Science Review Finds
Farming Must Adapt to Sustainable Farming


Foreign Worker Programme Changes Jeopardize Meat Processing Plants
Canada Urges Responsible Use of Antibiotics During Animal Health Week


European Livestock Sector Collaborates on Sustainable Development


Better Livestock Breeding Ahead for German Farmers


Andhra Pradesh to Form Farmers Corporation
Gujarat Fertilizers, EcoPhos JV to Set Up Animal Feed Plant


Australian Beef to US Rockets in September
Australia Exports Expected to Ease on Back of Strong Year


Calls for Transparency on Responsible Use of Antibiotics


More Romanian Bluetongue in Cattle, Sheep


The Drost Project - A Visual Guide to Porcine, Pig Reproduction.
VIV Europe Digital 2014
EuroTier 2014
VIV Asia 2015



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