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TheDairySite Newsletter - 14 February 2014

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Friday 14th February 2014.
Michael Priestley - Editor

Michael Priestley

Consensus on Strong 2014 Dairy Demand  

World milk demand will remain robust throughout 2014 and stay supported by China’s rapidly expanding ‘wildcard’ market, say dairy markets experts.

Furthermore, elevated farmgate prices will drive production as ‘mostly normal’ production conditions are predicted across key export areas.

This is according to a Rabobank agribusiness outlook which, along with several other dairy forecasts, predicts favourable domestic and export sales amid elevated farmgate prices for 2014.

However, Chinese and Russian production remains an enigma. Should decreases continue as they have been doing through 2013, then global prices will receive even more support, predicts Rabobank.

Exportable supply has been growing globally since September on the back of falling feed costs and rising producer margins, two reasons for US and New Zealand production to rise this year.

More moisture and a two per cent rise in calving US heifers in 2014 is the basis for more milk in these two important production regions.

The US Department of Agriculture anticipates a 2.2 per cent rise in milk output – this means 90.6 billion litres without any predicted yield increase.

In New Zealand, milk production is expected to lift eight per cent on the previous season.

Rabobank and DCANZ figures are based on a Fonterra milk price forecast of NZ$8.30/kg milk solids making extending lactations with supplementary feed a feasible proposition.

Lower feed costs are also important for US expectations.

In his outlook for the year, Professor Robert Cropp of the University of Wisconsin-Madison lists $4.31 per bushel corn and $187/ton hay as key feeds that are considerably lower than last year.

And while soybeans are slightly higher, this means returns over feed costs have improved greatly.

This will leave some regions with more milk, although the story is not totally straightforward.

“Forage quality could dampen increases in milk per cow in states like Wisconsin and Minnesota and extreme drought in California could affect their milk production,” said Professor Cropp. “But, we can expect cow numbers to increase as we move through the year and milk per cow to improve. This likely means milk prices averaging lower for the second half of the year than for the first half.

Furthermore, Cattlefax analysts at the NCBA convention last week said an El Nino would bring moisture to the US this year.

The weather outlook for Australasia is ‘mostly normal’. This is especially welcome news to Australian producers and North Island New Zealanders.

Some precipitation over Christmas and the New Year has alleviated North Island pasture concerns, although some areas remain dry.

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This Week's Articles and Analysis

Nanotechnology in the Agri-food Industry
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Kentucky University's Dr Roy Burris examines the balance between human food and animal feed and describes a recent report analysing food chain resource competition.

Feasibility Study of Veterinary Antibiotic Consumption in Germany
Comparing two methods of measuring antibiotic use in cattle and pigs, researchers in Germany report that over- or under-estimation of the animal's liveweight may lead to incorrect dosing and increase the risk of the development of antibiotic resistance.

How to Deposit Semen Correctly in the Cow
Don't apply too much force and ensure proper sanitation measures, advised Professor William M Graves in his review of correct semen placement at artificial insemination (AI).

How Can I Keep the Livestock Watering System from Freezing in Winter?
Tips for keeping vital water supplies to farm livestock in winter from the US National Sustainable Agriculture Information Service.

Company News

Treat Housed Dairy Cattle for Fluke Before Turnout
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Market Reports

UK December Agricultural Price Index - 13 February 2013
Availability & Usage of Milk by Dairies in England & Wales – December 2013
USDA Feed Outlook - 12 February 2014
USDA National Dairy Products Sales Report - 12 February 2014
USDA WASDE - 10 February 2014
Dairy Australia - Fortnightly Update 7 February 2014

Global Dairy Industry News


How Big is Carbon Footprint of Food Waste?
VNU Exhibitions Makes Livestock Network Stronger
Animal Health, Feed Safety Concerns Boost Feed Antioxidant Market
Improved Vaccines for Control of East Coast Fever in Cattle
FAO: Beef Prices up Marginally in January; Dairy Price Index Higher
Measuring Stress In Cows: An Exact Science?
Nutreco to Sell Spanish, Portuguese Meat and Feed Businesses

   United Kingdom

Forage Aid Eases Unprecedented Flood Woes
Exports Offer Great Opportunity for British Agriculture
Study Outlines Potential Genetic Solution to Bovine Tuberculosis
Global Weather Extremes Show Food Security Should be Major Concern
NFU President Outlines Flooding Concerns
Veterinary Pharmaceutical Industry Event Planned for June


Valio Investing Around 40M Euros in Oulu Dairy
Improving a Process the Soft Way

   European Union

Vote on Proposal to Strengthen EU Animal, Plant Health Rules Welcome

   United States

Congress Group Urges USDA to Ban Slaughter of Downer Calves
Daily Dairy Trading: Class III Milk and Spot Cheese Lower, Wednesday
Hot, Dry Summer Likely, but Possible Moisture Relief this Fall
Daily Dairy Trading: Milk Futures Close Mostly Higher, Tuesday
Wyckoff's Weekly Cattle Outlook: 'Mixed Bag' Following USDA Report
Daily Dairy Trading: Cheese Drop Continues, Monday
Tips on Reducing Energy, Propane Costs
NFU Pleased By Signing of Farm Bill
Daily Dairy Trading: Cheese Closes Week With Losses, Friday


Prices Up, Consumption Higher, Says Milk Committee
Biosensor Could Monitor Milk


Is New Chinese Agricultural Policy Driving Production, Consumption?


Food Exports Boost French Economic Recovery
How Much Does Organic Farming Rely on Conventional Agriculture?


Dairy Shipment Confirms Argentinian Recovery


Indian Agricultural Food Exports Rise Sharply


Agriculture Takes Centre Stage at Upcoming Australian Conference
MLA: Weekly Cattle Summary


German Ag Census: Fewer Farms But More Are Organic


Producers Urged to Recapture the Dignity of Raising Animals


Fonterra Auction Confirms Robust Global Demand, Prices for Butter, Powders
Irish Farmers Protest Against Factory Price Cuts


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