US skim milk powder exports forecast to fall 8%
Performance hindered by weak demand
3 September 2024
1 minute read
By: US skim milk powder (SMP) exports have been challenged to start 2024, down 11% through May, according to a recent USDA Dairy World Markets and Trade report.
Exports are forecast to fall more than 8% to 741,000 tons, as performance has been hindered by weak demand from key markets in Southeast Asia, compounded by increased competition.
Through May 2024, US SMP exports have experienced an 11% decline. In price sensitive Southeast Asian markets, major importers have reduced purchases, driven by a strong US dollar. Despite some signs of easing global inflation and potential economic stabilisation in many of the US major export markets, such as Mexico and many Southeast Asian countries, US supplies have not seen the pace of exports improve through the first five months of the year.
US competitiveness has weakened relative to other major exporters like New Zealand, who have leveraged the strength of the US dollar, and more favourable production conditions to capture larger market share. US SMP is expected to improve its price competitiveness in the second half of 2024 but unlikely to offset the losses so far in the year, as Oceania prices are forecast to stay within 4 cents per pound of US offerings.
