US milk production falls for 11th straight month - CoBank
Milk components matter more than milk production
16 July 2024
3 minute read
By: Milk production has been USDA’s gold standard for measuring dairy productivity in the US since 1931. However, according to the most recent CoBank Quarterly, as milk composition has changed significantly since 2011, and butterfat and protein percentages have moved to record highs, the productivity standard is shifting. From 2011 to 2023, butterfat pounds shipped from farms grew by 27.9% to reach 9.3 billion pounds. Meanwhile, milk production posted a smaller gain of 15.4% to reach 226.4 billion pounds.
Recent milk production trends show US milk production fell for the 11th straight month this May when it dropped 0.9%. On the flip side, combined butterfat and protein production has been up 10 of the past 11 months. This number was calculated from US.milk production data and butterfat and protein percentages from Federal Milk Marketing Order data. While not a perfect measure due to depooling of milk and the absence of a top five dairy state (Idaho) from the FMMO system, the combined butterfat and protein production metric gives a solid proxy of higher-content milk that is yielding more dairy products with each passing year. This market trend shows why tracking combined butterfat and protein pounds is a better measure of production from US dairy farms as consumers purchase more nutrient-dense dairy products.
Although cheese sales started the year on a sluggish note with domestic consumption down more than 3.5% in January and February, Americans ate more cheese this March and April compared to the same time last year. Low cheese prices on the spot CME market spurred international sales, as well. For the first time ever, US cheese export sales exceeded 100 million pounds in one month. In March, the US shipped 110.3 million pounds of cheese, up 20.5% year-over-year, and 102 million pounds in April, and 106 million pounds in May, with 40 million pounds going to Mexico.
Through June 22, dairy cow culling is down 218,500 head compared to the same time last year. That’s a dramatic downturn when compared to the four-year national trend and is due in part to the beef-on-dairy market development that has produced between 3 million and 3.25 million animals from a beef sire and a dairy dam. As a result, dairy heifer replacements available to take the places of cows leaving the herd has fallen to a 20-year low. This inventory scarcity has pushed dairy heifer replacement values past the $3,000 mark at multiple auction markets across the country. Given the high value of beef-on-dairy calves and the nearly three-year cycle from conception of a heifer until she has her first calf, this situation shows no signs of near-term reversal.
Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) continues to affect cows in at least a dozen states, although the two largest dairy states – California and Wisconsin – had no reported cases through mid-June. USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack announced that a host of companies are working on a vaccine to thwart the spread of HPAI in cattle. Until a potential vaccine reaches the market, the dairy community and others in agriculture will be dealingwith cows that contract H5N1, the resulting lower milk output and other ramifications from this virus.
