Less milk for 2023 in the EU - AHDB
Milk production is forecasted to drop 0.2% in 2023
6 April 2023
2 minute read
By: The European Commission has released its latest short-term dairy outlook, forecasting a drop of 0.2% in milk production for 2023. With a forecasted 1% increase in slaughterings, there will be less milk available in 2023 due to a declining dairy herd, according to an AHDB report from analyst Tom Price. Declining milk prices could lead to some large drops in production, especially in the second half of 2023, he said. Milk yields are predicted to be up by 0.8% from last year (assuming more typical weather conditions), which could help to limit the production drop.
Feed and forage quality and availability expected to be greater year-on-year, which means milk fat and protein content will likely improve. Dairy processing is expected to remain steady as a result.
Overall, the report showed a general shift towards the consumption of cheaper and lower quality dairy products in EU domestic markets due to the squeeze on consumer wallets from rising living costs and inflation. Therefore, the total value of EU dairy product consumption is forecast to decline whilst quantities should remain steady overall.
In terms of trade, Price said the increase in cheese and whey production is expected to contribute to a 2% increase in dairy product exports in 2023. These numbers assume a recovery in Chinese demand following the easing of Covid restrictions and stable exports to the UK and US.
Lower inflation across East Asia could promote demand for other dairy products, but may not be enough to offset domestic demand decline for fresh dairy products. Despite this, WMP exports are expected to continue to decline year on year, albeit slowing to 5% as production is set to fall.
