EU beef production, consumption expected to continue decline
Beef herd expected to decline by 450, 000 head
3 January 2025
2 minute read
By: EU beef production is projected to continue declining and fall by 450 000 t to 6.3 million t by 2035 (-6.7% compared to the 2022-2024 average). At the same time, the EU cow herd is set to decrease by 2.9 million heads over this period (-9.6%), according to the EU Agricultural Outlook report (2024-2035).
The dairy herd should decline progressively while the suckler cow herd is projected to decrease to 9.5 million heads by 2035 (-770 000 heads or -7.5% compared with 2022-2024), due to low profitability and the prospects of a stricter regulatory framework on sustainability aspects. However, this decline hides opposing developments in some EU countries.
Coupled income support and certain eco-schemes under the new CAP, together with a relatively favourable price outlook will only slow down this declining trend. The average slaughter weight is expected to continue its slightly upward trend thanks to better feed and herd management, and a larger share of beef-type animals in the productive herd. However, a shift to organic and more extensive production systems may partially counteract this trend. EU beef consumption decreased in 2024 because of tight EU supply, high prices, and a growing negative perception due to sustainability concerns.
This downward trend is likely to be sustained. As a result, by 2035, per capita beef consumption may drop from 9.8 kg per year to 9.2 kg per year (-5.9%).
