11 February 2013

2 minute read

Oceania

With analysts expecting a drier and hotter 2013, higher output is expected to mirror the second half of 2012 where cattle output increased as herd rebuilding started to slow down.

For 2013, output is expected to increase by just over two per cent to 2.2 million tonnes.

Early indications by the MLA suggest that domestic consumption is set to fall by just over one per cent to 31.7kg per head during 2013.

This fall in consumption added to domestic availability should leave export availability around three per cent higher at 995,000 tonnes.

Most of this increase in export availability will be destined for the US, with reduced US beef output in 2013 expected to lessen the impact of growing US competition on Australian beef in key overseas markets, especially in Japan and Korea.

The US is forecast to be the fastest expanding market (in volume terms) for the second year in succession.

Globally, the overall impact of the higher beef prices, driven by the US situation for manufacturing beef, will be welcomed by Australian beef exporters.

The “rising tide” of US beef prices should underpin higher prices across many markets, especially for frozen manufacturing beef.

However, the value of the Australian dollar will continue to play a massive part in determining whether the anticipated higher global frozen beef prices will be captured by Australian exporters and cattle producers.

In stark contrast to the bright demand outlook for Australian frozen beef heading into 2013, the overall outlook for Australian chilled beef remains tough, framed by the continued weak consumer sentiment and reduced demand for higher priced beef in many of the traditional advanced markets, including Australia.