14 March 2025

13 minute read

By: Jim Wyckoff

South America

North America

Asia

Study reveals widespread H5N1 infection in cattle

A new study indicates that the H5N1 bird flu virus is more prevalent in dairy cows than previously reported. Scientists have identified a concerning genetic mutation, PB2 E627K, in four dairy cow herds nearly a year after the virus was first detected in Texas cattle. This mutation, linked to increased mammal-to-mammal transmission, was also found in the first human case — a Texas dairy worker — last March. The outbreak has led to 70 human infections and one fatality. Since the initial cases, nearly 1,000 dairy herds have been affected, with California reporting the highest number of infections. Link for more info via the Los Angeles Times.

Weekly USDA US beef, pork export sales

Beef: Net sales of 14,300 MT for 2025 were up 7 percent from the previous week, but down 13 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were primarily for Japan (4,600 MT, including decreases of 300 MT), South Korea (3,000 MT, including decreases of 600 MT), China (2,500 MT, including decreases of 900 MT), Mexico (1,000 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), and Taiwan (800 MT, including decreases of 100 MT). Exports of 15,900 MT were up 21 percent from the previous week and 12 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to South Korea (4,400 MT), Japan (4,400 MT), China (2,500 MT), Mexico (1,700 MT), and Taiwan (900 MT).

Pork: Net sales of 20,300 MT for 2025--a marketing-year low--were down 52 percent from the previous week and 35 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for Mexico (6,300 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), Japan (5,100 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), South Korea (3,700 MT, including decreases of 800 MT), Colombia (1,900 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), and Australia (1,100 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), were offset by reductions for Canada (300 MT). Exports of 33,600 MT were up 4 percent from the previous week and 5 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Mexico (11,200 MT), South Korea (5,900 MT), Japan (4,700 MT), Colombia (2,800 MT), and China (2,600 MT).

US egg prices continue setting records

According to the Farm Bureau, US egg prices in 2025 have surged over 350% compared to last year, driven by inflation and a severe outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI). The disease has decimated poultry populations, with over 166 million birds affected since 2022, reducing egg supplies and pushing prices to record highs.

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt: It will take three to six months to “get the egg supply back to where it should be.” USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins and House Republicans have cited statistics showing the cost of eggs dropping. Rollins told reporters at the White House on Tuesday that the cost of a dozen eggs has gone down $1.85 since she announced her bird flu plan.

Unlike past outbreaks, HPAI has persisted year-round

The disease is spreading through wild birds and backyard flocks. The USDA reported the national average price for a dozen large Grade A eggs reached $8.15 on March 4, 2025. Meanwhile, inflation continues to elevate production costs, adding to the financial strain on farmers. Despite high prices, egg farmers face significant losses due to the destruction of infected flocks and prolonged recovery times.

The report’s bottom line: While the industry has shown resilience, the challenges of disease outbreaks and rising costs highlight the volatility of egg production in today’s market.

Brazilian egg exports set to surge 62% in 2025 amid US shortages

Brazil’s egg exports are projected to rise by 62% in 2025, reaching 30,000 tonnes, as the U.S. grapples with inflation and supply chain disruptions caused by avian flu. Despite this sharp increase, exports will still represent only 1% of Brazil’s total production, according to the Brazilian Animal Protein Association (ABPA). While Brazil is authorized to export processed eggs to the U.S., these products must first be converted into liquid or powdered form before reaching consumers. Rising American egg prices have triggered a Department of Justice investigation into potential anticompetitive practices by major corporations.

Meanwhile, the United Arab Emirates and Angola are also increasing their demand for Brazilian eggs. Domestically, Brazil’s egg production is expected to grow 2.4% in 2025 to 59 billion units, with per capita consumption projected to rise to 272 eggs per person.

Brazilian chicken exports hit record high in February

Brazilian chicken exports set a record for February, with shipments of fresh and processed poultry rising 17.9% year-over-year. A total of 468,400 tonnes were exported, generating $870.4 million in revenue — up 23.1% from February 2024. Over the first two months of 2025, exports reached 911,400 tonnes (+13.6%), with revenue climbing 22% to $1.7 billion. China remained the top destination, importing 49,600 tonnes (+18.1%), while South Africa saw the largest increase at +36.1%. Paraná led all states in poultry exports, shipping 186,000 tonnes (+15.9%). ABPA President Ricardo Santin cited strong global demand amid supply chain disruptions and avian flu concerns, suggesting Brazil may exceed initial projections.

USDA monthly WASDE reports on proteins

LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: Historical red meat, poultry, and egg supply and use estimates are adjusted to reflect revisions in slaughter, inventory, cold storage, and production data. Total red meat and poultry production for 2025 is raised on higher beef and chicken production forecasts, which is partially offset by lower pork and turkey production forecasts. The higher beef production forecast is due to heavier dressed weights more than offsetting lower slaughter.

Pork production is lowered on a slower rate of slaughter in the first quarter, partially offset by heavier dressed weights. USDA will release the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report on March 27, providing a further indication of hog supplies for slaughter in the second half of the year.

Broiler production is raised on improved returns and the latest placement and hatchery data. Turkey production is lowered on the latest hatchery data. Egg production is lowered due to Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI)-related culling of the egg laying flock through early March that is expected to affect production through the first three quarters of 2025.

The beef export forecast for 2025 is raised, with increased production allowing for additional supplies in the second half of the year. Beef imports are raised on strong shipments during January and continued strong demand for lean processing beef. Pork exports are reduced on lower expected domestic supplies and increased global price competition. Broiler exports are reduced on the latest trade data and continued price competition from global exporters dampening U.S. shipments.

Turkey exports are lowered on the lower expected domestic supplies. Cattle price forecasts are lowered for the first half of 2025 based on recent prices. The second half is unchanged as demand for cattle is expected to remain strong. Hog price forecasts are lowered for the second and third quarters, based on recent prices and slightly weaker demand than previously expected. The broiler price forecast is lowered based on lower expected prices during the first half of the year. The 2025 turkey price is lowered on recent prices and weaker demand. Egg price forecasts are reduced on latest prices showing a downward turn, as market demand slows after several weeks of increasing prices in response to HPAI-related reductions in production.

The milk production forecast for 2025 is reduced on lower expected output per cow more than offsetting slightly higher cow inventories. Imports are unchanged on a fat basis and reduced on a skim-solids basis. Exports are lowered on a fat basis, primarily due to lower cheese exports. On a skim-solids basis, exports are lowered due to lower expected shipments of cheese, dry skim milk products, and lactose. Domestic use is increased on both a fat and skim-solids basis. Cheese, butter, nonfat dry milk (NDM), and whey price forecasts are all lowered on recent prices. The Class III price is lowered on the lower price expectations for cheese and whey. The Class IV price is also reduced due to lower butter and NDM prices. The all milk price estimate for 2025 is lowered to $21.60 per cwt.

India’s edible oil imports fall to four-year low in February

While India’s palm oil imports rose 35.7% from the previous month to 373,549 MT in February, according to the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India, soyoil and sunflower oil imports fell 36% and 20.8%, respectively. Total edible oil imports dropped 12% to 899,565 MT, the lowest since February 2021. Stocks dropped 14% to 1.87 MMT as of March 1. Traders expect imports to rise in March as the industry seeks to replenish supplies.

USDA: China Livestock and Products Semi-Annual Report

USDA in a post maintains its 2025 forecast on the decline of both pork and beef production. Due to the decline in domestic beef production and growing market demand, Post forecasts beef imports to grow in 2025. Post revised downward its 2025 pork import forecast to levels similar to 2024 owing to depressed demand. The report forecast reflects animal disease policies/restrictions and trade policies in place as of March 3, 2025 and assumes their continuation. Post acknowledges but does not include in its forecast the potential impacts of recent retaliatory tariffs announced on March 4, 2025, by the Chinese Government, which come into effect on March 10, 2025, as well as the impending registration expirations of hundreds of U.S. meat establishments as they are not in effect at the time of this publication. Market access for U.S. beef and pork remains constrained as the Chinese government is not implementing relevant annexes for meat trade specified in the Economic and Trade Agreement (i.e., Phase One Agreement).

China’s Jan.-Feb. meat imports slightly below year-ago

China imported 1.098 MMT of meat (including offal) during the first two months of the year, down 3,000 MT (0.2%) from last year. China doesn’t break down meat imports by category in the preliminary data, but the bulk is pork/pork products.

Global food prices rise in February

The UN Food and Agriculture Organization global food price index rose 1.6% in February and was 8.2% above year-ago. While meat prices remained stable, all other price indices rose during February, with the most significant increases recorded for sugar, dairy and vegoils. Compared to year-ago, prices rose 4.9% for meat, 23.2% for dairy and 29.0% for vegoils, while values fell 1.1% for cereal grains and 15.8% for sugar.

Canadian dairy policy, fentanyl sparks tense Trump/Trudeau call

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau described his 50-minute phone call with President Trump last week as “colorful” and “heated.” A senior official revealed that Trump used profanity while discussing dairy products and became animated over fentanyl. Despite the heated exchanges, the call ended on a somewhat friendly note, with both leaders agreeing to explore potential tariff exemptions for U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA)-compliant products. As the 2026 USMCA review approaches, the U.S. is expected to push for further reforms to secure better market access for American dairy producers, with calls for swift diplomatic resolutions to avoid prolonged economic impacts.

Brazilian beef's potential reentry poses challenge to U.S. in Japanese market

Brazil is negotiating with Japan to restart beef exports after a ban in 2012 due to Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE). According to Southern Ag Today, despite Brazil's previous negligible market share, its return could disrupt U.S. beef exports to Japan, a vital market where U.S. beef currently leads with 43% of total imports. Brazil’s robust export capacity may enable it to compete in Japan, particularly if it can match the quality of U.S. beef.

Weekly USDA dairy report

CME GROUP CASH MARKETS (3/7) BUTTER: Grade AA closed at $2.3100. The weekly average for Grade AA is $2.2975 (-0.0505). CHEESE: Barrels closed at $1.6300 and 40# blocks at $1.6225. The weekly average for barrels is $1.7005 (-0.0940) and blocks $1.6380 (-0.2170). NONFAT DRY MILK: Grade A closed at $1.1550. The weekly average for Grade A is $1.1750 (-0.0315). DRY WHEY: Extra grade dry whey closed at $0.4900. The weekly average for dry whey is $0.4980 (-0.0300).

BUTTER HIGHLIGHTS: Domestic retail butter demand is mixed. Some manufacturers describe demand from international buyers as very strong over much of Q1 thus far. Bulk butter demand is generally steady. Stakeholders noted upward movement with respect to cream multiples this week, but plenty of cream is available throughout the country, and it is generally affordable for butter makers. Butter manufacturers are strongly churning cream and growing butter inventories for the most part. Bulk butter overages range from 12 cents below to 5 cents above market, across all regions.

CHEESE HIGHLIGHTS: Cheese production schedules are trending steady to stronger across the U.S. In the East region, contacts share available milk volumes are higher than normal for this time of year. Cheese demand is in balance with current supplies. Cheese production schedules are reportedly active. Cheesemakers in the Central region share balanced milk availability with spot milk prices ranging from $1.50 below Class III to flat Class. Contacts share slower demand notes and note cheese inventories are growing. Seasonal milk production is increasing in the West region. Contacts share spot milk loads are readily available for Class III processors. Cheese production schedules are trending steady to stronger. Domestic demand is steady to lighter.

FLUID MILK HIGHLIGHTS: Across the nation, milk production is undergoing a strengthening trend as spring flush approaches. That said, how milk intakes are meeting processor expectations are mixed. In the West, a few manufacturers describe milk intakes as falling below expectations. However, in the East, milk intakes are higher than anticipated. Central cheesemakers indicate that spot loads of milk have become slightly more available, especially when neighboring plants have reduced schedules. Spot milk prices this week were reported from $1.50 under to Class III. Demand from all Classes is steady; however, regions with traditionally high Class I usage continue to pull heavily on milk supplies. Cream remains readily available. Some industry contacts suggest a slight increase in spot cream interest may help reduce the glut. Condensed skim availability is increasing with mixed demand. Cream multiples for all Classes are 0.90 – 1.05 in the East, 0.70 – 1.08 in the Central region, and 0.70 – 1.05 in the West.

DRY PRODUCTS HIGHLIGHTS: Contacts suggest there is more caution regarding the trading of a number of dry dairy commodity markets due to hesitant international buying interest. Low/medium heat nonfat dry milk (NDM) prices were lower in the Central and East regions, while steady to lower in the West. As condensed skim availabilities and NDM production grows, demand has shifted from steady to quiet. High heat NDM prices were steady in the Central/East, while lower in the West. Dry buttermilk prices followed that pattern: steady in the Central/East regions while dropping in the West on growing supplies due to the deluge of cream moving into churns throughout much of 2025 so far. Dry whey prices were steady to lower in the Central region but lower in the rest of the country. Lactose prices were steady on somewhat limited availability. Whey protein concentrate 34% prices continued their bullish march forward. Contacts say demand remains intact and there is a clear limitation on recent production and availability. Dry whole milk prices decreased, as milk output begins its seasonal push higher. Rennet casein prices held steady, while acid casein prices moved lower.

ORGANIC DAIRY MARKET NEWS: In the UK, a recently released report regarding organic markets in 2024 revealed sales of organic food and beverage products grew last year across retail and food service. The Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) released monthly export volumes and values for organic milk categorized as HS-10 code 0401201000 for January 2025 indicating organic milk exports were up month prior and from January 2024. The December 2024 European organic milk average pay price increased in Austria, Germany and Bavaria compared to November but decreased in France. In the last two retail ad surveys the number of organic dairy ads increased from the prior weeks. Milk was the most advertised organic dairy commodity this week. Organic cream cheese, flavored milk, and sour cream were not present in the week 10 retail ad survey after appearing in the prior week's survey.

US NATIONAL RETAIL REPORT: It has become a rare occurrence when ice cream is not the most advertised dairy item. It is an even rarer occurrence when butter is. This week, conventional butter in one-pound packages was the most advertised single dairy item. Organic half-gallon milk ad totals remained atop the organic list this week. Total conventional dairy ad numbers increased 18 percent, while organic ad totals increased 39 percent.