31 January 2025

14 minute read

By: James Powell

Weekly global protein digest—1-30-25

Weekly USDA US beef, pork export sales

Beef:  Net US sales of 20,200 MT for 2025 were primarily for South Korea (11,300 MT, including decreases of 300 MT), Japan (3,800 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), Mexico (2,100 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), China (700 MT), and Canada (700 MT). Exports of 21,500 MT were primarily to South Korea (3,400 MT), Japan (2,700 MT), the Dominican Republic (1,900 MT), Mexico (1,800 MT), and China (1,800 MT).

Pork:  Net US sales of 33,600 MT for 2025 primarily for Mexico (11,800 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), China (11,200 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), South Korea (3,700 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), Japan (2,500 MT), and Colombia (1,100 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), were offset by reductions for Hong Kong (400 MT). Exports of 34,100 MT were primarily to Mexico (12,700 MT), the Bahamas (4,700 MT), South Korea (3,300 MT), Japan (2,700 MT), and China (2,600 MT).

Cargill to close Arkansas turkey plant amid workforce cuts

Cargill announced it will close its turkey processing facility in Springdale, Arkansas, on Aug. 1. Processing will shift to plants in Missouri and Virginia. Despite the closure, Cargill emphasized that turkey remains a key part of its protein portfolio and pledged to fulfill contracts with growers. The move is part of a broader effort to reduce its global workforce by 5% following declining earnings in its meat, grain and oilseed sectors. Other poultry companies have also closed plants in recent years.

Smithfield raises $522 million in IPO

Smithfield Foods Inc.’s initial public offering raised $522 million, with shares pricing below the marketed range. The world’s largest pork producer and an indirectly owned subsidiary of Hong Kong-listed WH Group Ltd., sold about 26 million shares for $20 each, according to a statement. Smithfield and its owner offered 17.4 million shares each for $23 to $27 apiece, a previous filing showed. WH Group, which acquired Smithfield more than a decade ago, will maintain control of the company after the listing.

Historic US cash cattle surge continues

Cash cattle averaged a record 209.19 last week, up $5.52 from the previous week and the tenth straight weekly gain. Cattle futures surged to an all-time high on support from the cash strength and last Friday’s bullish Cattle on Feed Report. But amid heavily overbought conditions, futures finished higher but well off their session highs on Monday, a potential sign the market may be ready for a pause after the historic run.

Unlocking Feeding Regulation in Chicks: New Insights for Poultry Industry

Exploring the hormonal and molecular factors regulating food intake and feeding patterns in poultry

The regulation of food intake in chickens is governed by a variety of molecular signals that control appetite, growth and metabolic processes. A groundbreaking study by Dr. Takaoki Saneyasu of Kobe University provides valuable insights into the role of peptides, such as spexins, adipokines, and intracellular signaling mechanisms, influencing food intake in chicks. These findings hold promising potential for improving and enhancing poultry farming practices in both broiler and layer chickens.

The poultry industry plays a vital role in the global food supply and is a cornerstone in the agricultural sector. With poultry meat and eggs being the most efficient and widely consumed animal proteins, advancing research to increase poultry productivity is crucial. The productivity of meat and eggs in chickens is widely dependent on food intake, and it is therefore imperative to investigate how feeding mechanisms are regulated within chicks.

To explore this further, Dr. Takaoki Saneyasu, an Associate Professor at the Graduate School of Agricultural Science, Kobe University, conducted a comprehensive review of recent research on the physiological mechanisms governing food intake in poultry.

“Broiler chickens are genetically selected for rapid growth and meat yield, yet their overconsumption of food leads to fat accumulation, which often results in poultry waste," says Dr. Saneyasu. “Understanding the mechanisms of food intake is, therefore, crucial for improving feed efficiency and reducing waste." The regulation of food intake in living beings is a complex process. Although there is a lot of research on the food intake regulations in humans, the mechanisms in chickens differ from those of mammals like humans in some factors.

"Many factors, such as hormones, nutrients, and neurological signaling, control food intake in living beings. Some of these factors differ between humans and poultry,” adds Dr. Saneyasu. Dr. Saneyasu reviewed various factors, including neuropeptides, such as adipokines, neurosecretory proteins GL and GM, and cellular signaling, to determine how each of these factors impacts the food consumption in chicks.

Neuropeptides are protein-like molecules that are involved in neuronal communication. These function as signaling molecules and are important in regulating various physiological activities. One such category of neuropeptides studied for its role in regulating feeding mechanisms is spexin (SPX). There are two types of SPX: SPX1, found in humans, and SPX2, found in chickens. SPX is related to galanin, a neurotransmitter that impacts food intake via hypothalamic pathways and appetite regulation. SPX 1 and 2 act on the galanin receptor (GALR) and reduce food intake in chicks. They activate GALR2-like receptor (GALR2L) and GALR3. Additionally, they change the gene expression of neuropeptides that control hunger, such as agouti-related peptide (AgRP) and cocaine- and amphetamine-regulated transcript (CART). This suggests that SPXs control eating behavior via GAR2L and GALA3 in chicks.

Another important group of molecules that regulate food intake is adipokines. These are bioactive polypeptides secreted by adipose tissue and are crucial for regulating appetite, metabolism, and inflammation. Leptin and adiponectin are two major adipokines in mammals, but their roles in appetite regulation are different between mammals and chickens. Contrary to mammals, leptin has a minimal role in chickens. Plasma adiponectin levels are decreased by refeeding in mammals, whereas they are higher in refed chicks compared to fasted ones. Additionally, adiponectin enhances food intake in chicks, but the effects of adiponectin on food intake are conflicting in mammals.

In addition to adiponectin and leptin, there were some other under-researched adipokines, like chemerin and apelin, which were identified to reduce food intake in chicks. Dr. Saneyasu explains, “Understanding the variations in the regulation of feeding via adipokines can lead to species-specific strategies for optimizing poultry diets.”

Additionally, Dr. Saneyasu also discussed the role of neurosecretory proteins, including neurosecretory proteins GL and neurosecretory proteins GM, in food intake mechanisms. Besides these signaling molecules, the study also emphasizes the mechanism of cellular signaling. “In mammals, cellular signaling pathways in the hypothalamus like AMPK, JAK/STAT, and Akt greatly contribute to the regulation of food intake, suggesting the possibility of their role in food intake in chickens as well,” remarks Dr. Saneyasu.

Discussing the methods involved in most of the studies, Dr. Saneyasu explains, “Most of the studies explored the central feeding regulation in chicks through intracerebrovascular injections, which is a simple and reliable method.”

Dr. Saneyasu concludes by sharing his opinions regarding future research: “I believe that there should be more research on the peripheral adipokines and gut hormone production in neonatal chicks to support the findings. Furthermore, species-specific research could also lead to new strategies for enhancing production and promoting sustainable poultry farming worldwide.”

Bullish USDA Cattle on Feed report

USDA estimated there were 11.823 million head of cattle in large feedlots (1,000-plus head) as of Jan. 1, down 107,000 head (0.9%) from year-ago and 71,000 head less than analysts expected. The drop in feedlot supplies was driven by a 3.3% decline in the number of cattle placed in December, with that category coming in below the bottom end of pre-report expectations. Marketings increased 1.0% during December, modestly less than expected. The placements figure is fully bullish, especially for deferred live cattle futures. With that said, futures rallied sharply into the report, so some of the bullishness may already by worked in.

Frozen US beef inventories neutral, pork stocks mildly negative

Beef stocks in USDA’s Cold Storage Report totaled 457.3 million lbs. at the end of December, up 16.6 million lbs. from November, which was slightly less than the five-year average increase of 18.3 million pounds. Frozen beef inventories declined 23.0 million lbs. (4.8%) from year-ago and stood 53.2 million lbs. (10.4%) below the five-year average. Pork stocks stood at 400.4 million lbs., up 9.3 million lbs. from November, more than the five-year average increase of 2.5 million lbs. for the month. Frozen beef inventories declined 27.0 million lbs. (6.3%) from last year and were 54.9 million lbs. (13.7%) below the five-year average.

USDA 2025 food price outlook

The January 2025 Food Price Outlook summarizes recent trends in food prices based on Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) data through December 2024. While food price inflation has slowed overall, key sectors like eggs and beef remain volatile due to supply chain and input cost pressures.

Key Highlights:

• Overall inflation trends: Food prices increased by 2.5% year-over-year as of December 2024, with food-at-home prices rising by 1.8% and food-away-from-home prices increasing by 3.6%.
• 2025 forecasts:
• Food prices expected to rise by 2.2%, slower than the historical average.
• Food-at-home prices predicted to grow by 1.3%, while food-away-from-home prices are forecasted to increase by 3.6%.
• Category insights:
• Egg prices saw a sharp rise of 36.8% year-over-year in December 2024, with 2025 prices projected to climb by 20.3% amid ongoing supply constraints.
• Beef and veal prices are expected to increase modestly by 1.5% in 2025, following a 4.9% rise in 2024.
• Pork and fats/oils prices are forecasted to decline in 2025, with decreases of 0.8% and 1.6%, respectively.
• Fresh fruit prices are anticipated to rise by 0.7%, while dairy product prices are expected to increase by 1.3%.

Producer Price Insights:
The PPI, which tracks wholesale prices, suggests continued volatility in farm-level and wholesale markets, with significant fluctuations predicted for eggs, milk, and fruits due to factors such as extreme weather and disease outbreaks. Farm-level egg prices are expected to see a sharp increase of 45.2% in 2025, with a wide prediction interval reflecting uncertainty.

Overall, while food price growth is expected to moderate compared to recent years, specific categories remain susceptible to sudden price shifts driven by global and domestic factors.

Nebraska's largest feedlot project underway

Southwest Nebraska is witnessing the rise of Blackshirt Feeders, set to become the state’s largest cattle feeding operation. Located near Haigler in Dundy County, this feedlot promises to transform the industry and boost the local economy significantly. Operational as of January 2025, Blackshirt Feeders has received its first shipment of cattle and is on track to meet its initial capacity target by year-end. Project highlights:

• Capacity: 150,000 cattle at full scale (phased implementation by 2026).
• Timeline: Initial 50,000 cattle by end of 2024; additional 50,000 in 2025; full capacity by 2026.

Innovative features

• Environmental technologies: Roller-compacted concrete base, anaerobic digesters for methane production, advanced runoff management, and renewable natural gas generation.
• Sustainability focus: Offsetting water usage by retiring irrigated acres and managing manure through anaerobic digestion.

Economic impact

• Jobs: 120-130 positions with a $25 million annual payroll.
• Revenue: Annual cattle sales projected at $300 million, with a $366 million local economic impact.

Germany’s pork sector faces mounting challenges

Germany's first outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease in nearly 40 years has dealt a severe blow to its struggling pork industry, Bloomberg reports. Since the outbreak on Jan. 10, major export destinations like the UK, South Korea, and Mexico have banned German pork imports, costing the country at least €1 billion ($1.05 billion) in lost sales, according to the farm cooperatives group DRV.

This setback follows years of turbulence, including African swine fever outbreaks since 2020, which led to bans from key markets such as China. Meanwhile, rising feed and energy costs, exacerbated by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, have accelerated the sector's decline, with Spain overtaking Germany as Europe’s top pork exporter.

Declining domestic demand, driven by shifting dietary preferences and animal welfare concerns, has left the industry increasingly reliant on exports. Analysts note that while a stronger European economy in 2025 might boost local consumption, global trade dynamics—including potential policy changes under a second Trump administration—could play a critical role.

Adding to the uncertainty, China’s investigation into alleged dumping of EU pork could result in tariffs, intensifying competition within the European market. These pressures underscore the challenges facing Germany's once-dominant pork sector.

Weekly USDA dairy report

BUTTER: Grade AA closed at $2.5300. The weekly average for Grade AA is $2.5250 (-0.0390). CHEESE: Barrels closed at $1.8200 and 40# blocks at $1.8325. The weekly average for barrels is $1.8250 (-0.0490) and blocks $1.8019 (-0.0806). NONFAT DRY MILK: Grade A closed at $1.3475. The weekly average for Grade A is $1.3500 (-0.0180). DRY WHEY: Extra grade dry whey closed at $0.6975. The weekly average for dry whey is $0.7088 (-0.0292).

BUTTER HIGHLIGHTS: For the East and Central regions butter demand is steady. For the West region, butter demand is mixed. Cream loads are readily available. The bottom end of the All-Classes cream multiple range for the West region remained under 1.00 this week. Some cream sellers convey a sentiment that there are more cream loads available than homes. Several butter manufacturers are bringing in excess cream for their churns. Butter production schedules vary from steady to strong. A few butter makers note snug unsalted butter availability. Bulk butter overages range from 4 cents below to 6 cents above market, across all regions.

CHEESE HIGHLIGHTS: Cheese production schedules vary from steady to stronger throughout the U.S. In the East region, milk availability ranges from steady to snug. That said, contacts relay active cheese production schedules. Demand from both retail and foodservice sectors is steady. Cheesemakers in the Central region relay seasonally strong cheese production schedules. Cheese demand is noted to be steady to lighter than usual for this time of year. Contacts reported spot milk prices ranging from $1 under to $1 above Class III. In the West region, cheese production is trending steady to stronger. Milk handlers relay healthy demand for milk from cheese manufacturers. Spot loads of cheese are on the snug side, but generally available for interested buyers.

FLUID MILK HIGHLIGHTS: Seasonal increases in milk production at the farm level are being seen in all regions of the country. Farmers are taking appropriate steps to keep their herds comfortable as snow and Arctic temperatures push over large parts of the U.S. Component level drops have yet to be reported. Some contacts expect this to continue as long as cows are kept comfortable and good feed quality is maintained. Class I bottling is mixed. The milk intake at some plants is varied with recent holidays and school closures due to weather. Milk availability for Class III is steady to strong in the East, while contacts report it is balanced and steady in the Central and West regions. Reported Central spot milk prices ranged from $1-under to $1-over Class III this week. Milk demand from all other Classes is steady. There is a lot of cream in the U.S., and sellers are working to find homes for it all. Demand from Class IV is steady, although contacts report some Central butter makers took in more cream this week than in recent weeks. Class IV manufacturers are building inventory for spring. Cream multiples for all Classes range 1.00-1.24 in the East, 1.02-1.24 in the Midwest, and 0.80-1.16 in the West. Condensed skim demand is mixed in the West, but demand is generally in line with expectations. East condensed skim demand is steady to good. Contacts say it has been strengthening since the holidays.

DRY PRODUCTS HIGHLIGHTS: Low/medium heat nonfat dry milk (NDM) prices were steady to lower throughout the regions. Demand notes have been steady to quiet. Dry buttermilk prices were steady to higher, and stocks are noted as generally tight. Dry whole milk prices slipped lower, despite strong Class I pulls and limited drying activity. Dry whey prices were steady to lower in the Central, but steady to higher in the East and the West. Market tones for dry whey remain somewhat firm for the near-term based generally on limited supplies. Speaking of limited supplies, whey protein concentrate 34% availability is markedly tight as prices continued to trend northbound. Lactose prices were unchanged, as most volumes are contractually committed. Acid and rennet casein prices were unchanged. Trading in the EU has been disrupted by the reported case of Foot-and-Mouth disease in Germany.

ORGANIC DAIRY MARKET NEWS: The Transition to Organic Partnership Program (TOPP) was formed through cooperative agreements between the USDA and non-profit organizations to provide technical assistance and support for transitioning and existing organic farmers. The USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture (NIFA)'s weekly newsletter, NIFA Update, provides information on news and information regarding agricultural-related sciences and technologies. The newsletter includes a list of upcoming webinars and application deadlines. The Dairy Business Innovation Alliance (DBIA), a partnership between the Center for Dairy Research at the University of Wisconsin Madison and the Wisconsin Cheese Makers Association (WCMA), is seeking grant proposals from organic dairy processors. During December 2024, Federal Milk Market Order 1 reports organic whole milk utilization totaled 18.7 million pounds, up from 17.7 million pounds the previous year. The utilization of organic reduced fat milk, 14.6 million pounds, increased from 15.8 million pounds a year ago. In a recent report from a Pacific Northwest livestock auction, the top 10 organic cull cows traded higher than the top 10 conventional cull cows. The overall price for organic cows auctioned was $118.02 per hundredweight with an average weight of 1153.4 pounds, while the overall price for conventional cows auctioned was $96.53 per hundredweight with an average weight of 1219.4 pounds. The Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) reported November 2024 estimated U.S. sale of total organic milk products was 249 million pounds, up 7.7 percent from the previous year, and up 6.9 percent year-to-date.

NATIONAL RETAIL REPORT: The year’s fourth week brought a decrease in total dairy advertisements by 24 percent for conventional items and four percent in the organic aisle. The only two conventional dairy commodities that exhibited growth this week were cream cheese and flavored milk. Organic dairy commodities that increased were butter, sour cream and yogurt. Per the norm, ice cream in 48-64-ounce containers was the most advertised conventional item this week, while half-gallon milk was the most advertised item on the organic side.