22 November 2024

11 minute read

By: Jim Wyckoff

North America

Asia

Oceania

Weekly USDA US pork export sales

Pork: Net sales of 18,100 MT for 2024 were down 9 percent from the previous week, but unchanged from the prior 4-week average. Increases were primarily for Mexico (4,100 MT, including decreases of 300 MT), South Korea (3,300 MT, including decreases of 700 MT), Japan (2,000 MT, including decreases of 1,100 MT), Colombia (1,900 MT, including decreases of 800 MT), and Canada (1,500 MT, including decreases of 700 MT). Net sales of 2,500 MT for 2025 were primarily for Australia (900 MT), South Korea (600 MT), Colombia (400 MT), Costa Rica (200 MT), and Japan (100 MT). Exports of 32,000 MT were up 3 percent from the previous week, but down 2 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Mexico (12,600 MT), Japan (3,800 MT), South Korea (3,300 MT), China (2,900 MT), and Colombia (2,800 MT).

USDA annual Australia dairy market report

Milk production for 2025 in Australia is forecast to increase by 1.1 percent to 8.8 million metric tons (MMT) after strong growth of 2.7 percent for 2024 at an estimated 8.7 MMT from previous years of declining production. Expectations for 2025 would be higher if not for challenging dry conditions in parts of Australia’s dairy-producing regions. Fresh milk consumption is forecast to reverse a five-year decline. Factory use of milk is expected to rise, with much of it forecast to be diverted to cheese production. Skin Milk Powder (SMP) and Whole Milk Powder (WMP) production is forecast to remain stable, but there is a slight increase in butter production. Exports for SMP, WMP, and butter are forecast to moderate in 2025 after strong results so far in 2024.

China’s pork imports continue to decline

China imported 90,000 MT of pork in October, down 10% from September and 1.6% less than last year. Through the first 10 months of the year, China imported 890,000 MT of pork, down 34.9% from the same period last year.

Oregon confirms first human case of H5N1

The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) on Friday confirmed H5N1 in a person in Oregon. The infected person is linked to a previously reported outbreak tied to a commercial poultry operation in the state, where the virus has been confirmed in 150,000 birds, the state health authority said.

USDA Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook: November 2024

Dressed Weights and Milk per Cow: January–September 2024, 2023, and 2018–2022 Averages The chart below shows carcass weights for the average steer, hog, and broiler and the average milk produced per cow per day. The average dressed weight for steers has been higher in 2024 than it was in 2023. Dressed weights for barrows and gilts were unusually low in the latter half of 2023. So far in 2024, dressed weights for hogs have been close to recent historical averages. Young-chicken weights in 2024 are like those of 2023 and above the previous 5-year average. Milk per cow in 2024 tracks 2023.

Beef/Cattle: The production outlook is raised from last month for both 2024 and 2025. Fourth quarter 2024 production is forecast marginally higher than last month, raising the annual forecast to 27.025 billion pounds. This is based on a slower expected pace of fed cattle marketings that is more than offset by higher expected cow slaughter and heavier carcass weights for the rest of the year. The outlook for 2025 production is raised to 26.280 billion pounds on higher anticipated fed cattle marketings and heavier carcass weights from last month. Quarterly cattle price forecasts in 2025 are raised each quarter on a faster pace of marketings anticipated next year. Based on September trade data, U.S. beef imports are raised in late 2024 and in second-half 2025. The outlook for U.S. beef exports is raised for next year based on greater expected beef production in 2025.

Dairy: The forecasts for the herd size and milk per cow in the fourth quarter of 2024 are unchanged; however, the forecasts for the year are adjusted, reflecting 2024 third-quarter data. Consequently, 2024 milk production is forecast at 226.0 billion pounds, 0.2 billion pounds higher than the previous forecast. With recent price movements and higher-than-expected third-quarter inventories, the 2024 price forecast for butter is revised downward. The price forecasts for dry whey and nonfat dry milk are revised upward on tight inventories and strong international demand. The all-milk price forecast for 2024 is lowered to $22.75 per hundredweight (cwt). The changes in 2024 product price forecasts are carried into 2025, along with an upward revision for the Cheddar cheese price forecast. The all-milk price forecast for 2025 is raised to $22.85 per cwt.

Pork/Hogs: The forecast for fourth-quarter 2024 pork production is reduced by 90 million pounds to 7.3 billion pounds, due to a slower pace of slaughter. Fourth-quarter hog prices are raised to $60 per cwt, 12 percent higher than a year ago. Lower availability of slaughter-ready hogs at lighter dressed weights is forecast into the first half of 2025. First-quarter pork production is lowered to 7 billion pounds, about 1 percent below same-period production this year. First-quarter 2025 hog prices are forecast at $58 per cwt, almost 6 percent higher than a year earlier. Second-quarter 2025 prices are expected to be $62 per cwt, more than 5 percent below same-period prices this year. September pork exports were 7 percent higher than those in September 2023. Third-quarter exports totaled to 1.676 billion pounds, 8.6 percent above same period shipments last year. Total exports for 2024 are forecast at 7.2 billion pounds, 4.8 percent higher than exports last year. Total exports for 2025 are expected to be about 7.4 billion pounds, 2.8 percent higher than exports forecast for 2024.

Poultry/Eggs: Projected broiler production is revised up in 2025 on favorable hatchery indicators and feed prices. Projected broiler exports were adjusted down in 2024 and 2025 on recent data and strong global competition. Wholesale broiler price expectations in 2024 and 2025 are adjusted slightly higher based on recent data. Table egg production projections are adjusted down in 2024 and 2025 on a slow-growing layer flock and additional losses due to avian influenza. Egg and egg-product export projections are unchanged in outlying quarters. Egg price projections are adjusted up in 2024 and early 2025 on recent data. Projected turkey production and exports are unchanged in outlying quarters. Projected turkey prices are adjusted up slightly in the fourth quarter of 2024 and the first two quarters of 2025 on recent data.

Weekly USDA dairy report

CME GROUP CASH MARKETS (11/15) BUTTER: Grade AA closed at $2.6300. The weekly average for Grade AA is $2.6205 (-0.0470). CHEESE: Barrels closed at $1.6850 and 40# blocks at $1.6925. The weekly average for barrels is $1.6820 (-0.1315) and blocks $1.6935 (-0.0745). NONFAT DRY MILK: Grade A closed at $1.4000. The weekly average for Grade A is $1.3990 (+0.0110). DRY WHEY: Extra grade dry whey closed at $0.6550. The weekly average for dry whey is $0.6365 (+0.0165).

BUTTER HIGHLIGHTS: East region stakeholders indicate domestic retail and food service butter demand is lighter. Central region stakeholders indicate domestic retail butter demand is steady, and food service demand has been lighter for Q3/Q4 2024 thus far. West region stakeholders indicate domestic demand varies from steady to lighter for both sectors. Industry participants convey steady or stronger demand from international buyers. Cream volumes continue to be far from short throughout most of the country. Butter production paces are mixed across the country. For some butter manufacturers November/December churn equipment projects are reducing production capacity. Bulk butter overages range from 1 to 8 cents above market, across all regions.

CHEESE HIGHLIGHTS: Cheese production remains mixed throughout the U.S. In the East, cheese plant managers relay mixed cheese production schedules. Milk outputs are increasing seasonally in some pockets of the region, but fluid milk volumes remain tight. Contacts share demand for Italian style cheeses is increasing. Food service demand is slow. In the Central region, cheesemakers share production is seasonally active. Milk availability varies throughout the region. Spot milk loads were reported at $3.00 under to $3.00 above Class III. Some contacts relay slower food service sales. In the West, spot milk volumes remain tight but are adequate to meet production needs. Contacts share mixed cheese production schedules. Cheese plant managers share steady to stronger demand from retail buyers.

FLUID MILK HIGHLIGHTS: With a few exceptions, milk production is steady to higher across the country. Steady milk production is being seen over a large stretch of the country, covering the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, Upper Midwest, and Pacific Northwest. Stronger volumes are being seen in Arizona, New Mexico, and the southern Central states. Texas, for instance, is seeing an uptick in spot milk availability. Numbers in California the Northeast are mixed as some producers are seeing slightly heavy volumes, while others are seeing lighter volumes. Class I demand continues to keep milk balanced to tight across the country. Bottled inventory is heading not only to schools but also to store shelves before the holiday. Class III demand is steady to strong as orders from cheese manufacturers are picking up. In the Midwest, spot milk prices were anywhere from $.50- to $3-over Class III, while $3-under Class was reported in the South. All Class manufacturing demands for milk are steady throughout the country. Cream volumes are loose over most of the country, the Southwest portion of the country is experiencing tighter cream availability, and higher cream multiples. Cream demand is mixed. Butter manufacturers have built up their inventories, but Class II and III demand is beginning to grow as cream finds a variety of end users before the holiday season. Condensed skim is available, although not as much as in previous weeks. Demand for condensed skim is holding steady across the country. Cream multiples for all Classes range 1.20-1.32 in the East, 0.90-1.26 in the Midwest, and 1.00-1.30 in the West.

DRY PRODUCTS HIGHLIGHTS: Commodity dairy powders, for the most part, are in the midst of a bullish push. Low/medium heat nonfat dry milk (NDM) prices shifted higher. Demand notes remain subdued, but supplies are snug throughout the country. Dry buttermilk prices moved higher throughout the regions. Supplies from West to East have tightened in recent weeks as bullish Q4 expectations have come to fruition regarding dry buttermilk markets. Dry whole milk prices were unchanged on limited spot trading activity. Dry whey availability limitations continue to keep markets bullish, and despite mixed pries in the Central region, prices were higher in other regions. The lactose price range contracted, moving higher at the bottom of the range but lower at the top. Whey protein concentrate 34% prices continued their recent ascent. Dry whole milk and acid casein prices were unchanged, while rennet casein prices shifted lower.

ORGANIC DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS: The USDA Farm Service Agency (FSA) is extending the application deadline for the Organic Dairy Marketing Assistance Program (ODMAP) 2024 to December 13, 2024. The 2024 ODMAP helps organic dairy producers mitigate market volatility, higher input and transportation costs, and unstable feed supply and prices. The Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) releases monthly export data which includes export volumes and values for organic milk categorized as HS-10 code 0401201000. Recently released data for September 2024 indicated organic milk exports were 268,828 liters, down 7.7 percent from the month prior, but up 70.4 percent from 2023. Exports of organic milk from the start of the year through September are up 28.8 percent, compared to the same period one year ago. Organic feed corn trades were active with light demand. Organic feed soybean trades were moderate with light to moderate demand. Organic feed corn sold 5 cents higher delivered elevator with the bulk of trades occurring for forward contracts delivering Q4 2024 through Q3 2025. Organic feed soybeans sold 13 cents lower delivered elevator with forward contracts delivering Q4 2024 through Q3 2025.

NATIONAL RETAIL REPORT: Conventional dairy ads increased by 5 percent, whereas organic dairy ads increased by 243 percent this week. Although total conventional cheese ads decreased for week 46 compared to week 45, conventional cheese was easily the most advertised conventional dairy commodity. Conventional 6-8 ounce packages of sliced, shredded and block cheese have weighted average advertised prices of $2.75, $2.51, and $2.71, respectively. The shredded style had a price decrease of 3 cents for this package size. Both the sliced and block styles had price increases for this package size. The block style had the larger price increase, which was 29 cents.

NOVEMBER SUPPLY AND DEMAND ESTIMATES (WASDE): The milk production forecast for 2024 is raised from the previous month. Based on the most recent Milk Production report, lower reported milk cow numbers for the third quarter of 2024 were more than offset by higher output per cow. The milk forecast for 2025 is unchanged. The butter price forecast is reduced for 2024, as prices have continued to fall from the relatively high levels they maintained for much of the year through late-September. The cheese price forecast for 2024 is unchanged. For 2025, butter price forecasts are lowered due to relatively higher inventories heading into the 2024 holiday season. The cheese price forecast is raised, based on higher prices and tight inventories in late 2024. The Class III price forecast is unchanged for 2024. The Class IV price forecast is lowered, with lower butter prices more than offsetting higher NDM. The all milk price for 2024 is lowered to $22.75 per cwt. The all milk price forecast for 2025 is raised to $22.85 per cwt.

CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (BLS): The October CPI for all food is 332.7, up 2.1 percent from 2023. The dairy products index is 271.7, up 1.3 percent from a year ago. The following are the October, year to year percentage changes for selected products: fresh whole milk is +1.5; cheese, +0.6; and butter, +5.1.

PRODUCER PRICE INDEX (BLS): The October PPI for all food is 260.6, up 2.1 percent from 2023. The dairy products index is 252.2, up 5.1 percent from a year ago. The following are the October, year to year percentage changes for selected products: fresh whole milk, +10.7; cheese, +9.1; and butter, -22.3.