Australia Livestock and Products Annual 2008
By USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service - This article provides the cattle industry data from the USDA FAS Livestock and Products Annual 2008 report for Australia. A link to the full report is also provided. The full report includes all the tabular data, which we have omitted from this article.
1 September 2008
3 minute read
Report Highlights:
The Australian Cattle industry is expected to expand over the forecast period out to the end of CY 2009. Increases in inventories are expected to see slaughter and production subside in CY 2008 and CY 2009 from record levels experienced in CY 2007. A decrease in production in CY 2008 and CY 2009 will place downward pressure on exports. Falling exports will also be facilitated by the stronger relative value of the Australian dollar and increased competition in export markets such as Japan and Korea. Imports of US pork rose sharply in CY 2007 and CY 2008 and are expected to grow in CY 2009, albeit at a slower rate.
Summary
The Australian Cattle industry is expected to expand over the forecast period out to the end of CY 2009. Relatively high prices combined with a return to more normal weather conditions and the associated improvements in grain and pasture production outlook is expected to boost closing inventories in CY 2008 and CY 2009.
Increases in inventories are expected to see slaughter and production subside in CY 2008 and CY 2009 from record levels experienced in CY 2007. Despite this fall, slaughter is likely to remain historically high. Production of beef and veal is expected to fall in line with slaughter during this period.
A decrease in production in CY 2008 and CY 2009 will place downward pressure on exports. Falling exports will also be facilitated by the stronger relative value of the Australian dollar and increased comp etition in export markets such as Japan and Korea. Post expects the emergence of growth markets such as Russia to constrain this fall somewhat.
Feedlot activity is expected to improve steadily over the remainder of CY 2008 and throughout CY 2009. A greatly improved outlook for Australian grain production and supply is expected to see feedlot numbers increase significantly over the foreseeable future, although improved grain supply is not expected to see an immediate return to historically high levels.
Live cattle exports have increased significantly in recent times. Official trade figures show this increase largely driven by growth in exports to Indonesia as well as drought in some key supply areas. Post expects this trend to continue, particularly while exports of processed beef are forecast to decline.
High prices have received much media attention in recent times and have created a significant challenge for Australian livestock industries more generally. Transport costs for livestock and feed in particular has reduced industry profitability, however post sees this burden affecting all agricultural industries and is unlikely, at this stage, to cause resources or capital to be shifted away from the livestock industry.
Going forward, post has assumed average weather conditions which, if achieved, will likely see grain production bounce back from historical lows and see pasture conditions greatly improve from the record drought experienced since CY 2002. Post has assumed there will be no significant changes in access for Australian beef market access during the forecast period.
The Australian pig meat industry has been under much pressure in recent times. On the supply side, severe and long running drought has increased grain prices and reduced feed grain availability, sharply increasing production costs. On the demand side, the strong Australian dollar has sharply increased imports, providing strong competition on the domestic market, while constraining returns for exported pig meat. Imports of US pork rose sharply in CY 2007 and CY 2008 and are expected to grow in CY 2009, albeit at a slower rate.
Further Reading
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List of Articles in this series
To view our complete list of Livestock and Products Annual, and Semi-Annual reports, please click hereSeptember 2008
